With the increase in Iraqi sectarian violence between Shi`ites and Sunnis (which has led to more deaths of innocents), it's key to note that US occupation was the catalyst for destabilization. There are rumors and conspiracy theories about the goals of the US occupation -- some stating that the US wanted destabilize Iraq, and some stating that the US deposed Saddam to gain favor with the Shi`ite groups... but in the end, the result is massive sectarian violence between two major factions. This sort of thing tends to come in the aftermath of a power-void, and since the two factions are Islamic fundamentalists (as opposed to Saddam's largely secular rule), the citizens of Iraq may find themselves under greater oppressive rule than before. Both the Shi`ites and Sunnis aren't terribly fond of the US, so it's not going to be easy for the US to maintain some semblance of stability in Iraq.

In Lebanon, we are on the cusp of another power void, and the new players are a familiar face -- the radical Shi`ite and the Sunni groups. This will certainly make things worse for Israel, worse for the US, and worse for the Lebanese people.

As'ad AbuKhalil writes on this post:

The future trends in Lebanese politics are not going to be good. Secular and leftist groups and parties will be increasingly marginalized. Tomorrow, a new Islamic fundamentalist front will be founded in Lebanon. The Islamic Action Front will be announced by its founder, Islamic fundamentalist thinker, Fathi Yakan, who broke with Al-Jama`ah Al-Islamiyyah in the wake of Hariri's assassination. The Sunni front will comprise many radical Sunni fundamentalist groups and will declare its support for Hizbullah. I think that Sunni and Shi`ite politics in Lebanon will become more fundamentalist out of this, not less. This new front will weaken the stance of Al-Jama`ah Al-Islamiyyah which has clearly distanced itself from Hariri Inc since the Isareli war started. It is likely that Hariri Inc may try to cultivate and finance some of the kooky Bin Ladenite groups in order to prop up their "Islamist credentials." They have done that in the past.